Thursday, August 30, 2007

The next big thing

Self directed vehicles. If you've followed the news, its clear that self directed vehicles are coming. Will they be widely deployed in 15 years? 30 years? Imagine the impact - truck driving will cease to exist as a job, there should be far less accidents since most accidents are the result of human error which will mean less fatigue for people and leisure time in the car, but less business for auto body shops. We'll also see the creation of vehicles intended for transporting goods only - pizza delivery vehicles. The result will be more consumer choice and retailers will have to retool their operations to focus on orders placed remotely that the consumer wants delivered - to start with there will be jobs for "pickers" who fill a shopping basket and load the goods into a delivery vehicle, but later retailers will reduce the size of their stores. They'll open distribution centers to serve consumers who place an order over the internet and who want the goods they purchase delivered and have smaller stores where they'll display merchandise and have a few of everything available for immediate purchase - these stores will be more like showrooms. If you can get everything delivered does that mean that cities will be less appealing? There will be smaller vehicles that only hold one person. Can someone design a modular vehicle that can hold one person normally, but can be expanded to hold more as the need arises? Will soccer moms let their children be driven to soccer practice by an unmanned vehicle? Self directed lawn mowers will be smaller since there won't be a need to carry 200+ pounds of man around the lawn. The demand for self directed vehicles will only increase if undocumented workers/illegal immigrants are forced to return to their birthplace and if the shortage of truck drivers continues

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